The Sleeping Menace
By Elton Camp
(This is the last of my daily story posts. As with the others, it’s true when it describes past events, but this one speculates on something that may or may not happen. If it does, it will be a catastrophe beyond imagination. I plan still to post items to this page that I think readers may like. They may appear at any time of day and on an unpredictable basis. If I write more stories, I’ll plan to post them here. I need to work on finalizing my book. It’s been fun sharing with y’all and I appreciate all the “Likes” and Comments.)
Let’s take a speculative look into the future at what might be the most catastrophic natural disaster ever to strike the United States. Hundreds of miles from the epicenter, shaking is being felt indoors by many, but outdoors by few. Dishes are rattling in kitchen cabinets, doors moving and walls emitting cracking sounds.
Those living closer notice hanging plants and chandeliers swaying, objects falling off shelves, pictures crashing from walls, cabinets opening and shutting, trees swaying back and forth, buildings creaking and alarms on rocking cars going off. Shaking, jolting or rolling motions awaken sleeping people. Plaster in walls is cracking, drivers are feeling their cars shaking and becoming hard to control, furniture is breaking and loose bricks are falling from buildings. Damage is slight in poorly built buildings, but there is no structural harm.
Closer yet to the epicenter, tree branches are breaking, hillsides are cracking, water levels in wells changing, houses not bolted down shifting on their foundations and tall structures such as towers and chimneys twisting and falling. Poorly-built structures are being severely damaged and well-built ones suffering considerable damage.
Still nearer the focus of the earthquake, most buildings are being destroyed, bridges and dams are being taken out, enormous landslides are occurring, underground pipes are breaking, the ground is cracking open, reservoirs are being damaged, railroad tracks are wildly bending, objects are being thrown into the air and the ground is moving in waves or ripples.
Is this the long-predicted “Big One” in California? No. A serious earthquake is occurring on the New Madrid Fault, resulting in mild to catastrophic damage across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississppi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and particularly Tennessee. It is creating the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in United States history. Tens of thousands of structures are being destroyed, water distribution, transportation systems and the electrical grid are failing, cellular towers are falling and many thousands are dying, with more than 4,000 fatalities occurring in Memphis alone. St. Louis, Little Rock and many small and medium-sized cities are sustaining damage, including those in north Alabama and Tennessee.
When the shaking and aftershocks pass, destroyed pumping stations mean no easy access to drinking water for weeks to months. The loss of electrical power has the biggest impact on peoples’ lives since at least six months and possibly two years will be required to restore service. Natural gas pipelines ruptured, creating fires and explosions. Adding to the horror, people are outraged when they discover that “all-risk” homeowner insurance specifically excludes earthquake damage in the absence of a rider at an increased premium. The entire eastern half of the United States is affected by the disaster.
Alarmist! Foolish speculation! It’ll never happen--or will it? Let’s take a look at the New Madrid Fault. Located in the heart of the country, far from any tectonic plate borders, it’s 150 miles long and runs from St. Louis to Memphis. Due to the harder, colder, drier and less factured nature of the rocks in the region’s crust, its impact zone is twenty times larger than the far longer and better-known San Andreas Fault in California. More than fifteen million people could be affected to various degrees if it again generates a major earthquake. The U.S. Geological Service states that the approximately 650,000 people living in Memphis are at the greatest risk.
To get a better understanding of the threat of this sleeping menace, we need only look at what took place in 1811-1812. Three of the largest North American earthquakes in recorded hisory all occurred within a three-month period between December 1811 and February 1812. These events were followed by hundreds of aftershocks over a period of years, some damaging in themselves. For a time, people had to live out of doors to avoid being crushed by their falling houses. Aftershocks strong enough to be felt occurred regularly until the year 1817. Decades later, aftershocks took place in 1843 and again in 1895, with magnitude estimates of six or above.
Accounts of these various quakes differ since no measuring instruments existed at that time, but geologists cite evidence of at least magnitude eight for some of them. The future location of Memphis, Tennessee was severely shaken. The intense shaking rang church bells as far away as Boston and New York. Chimneys toppled from as far south as Gadsden, Alabama to Canada. President James Madison and wife Dolly were awakened in the White House as windows and furniture shook in the District of Columbia. In parts of Ohio, residents fled their homes. Some damage to tall buidings in Charleston, South Carolina demonstrated how efficiently seismic waves travel in the type rocks of the Eastern United States. It is sobering to realize that all these places were farther away from the epicenter than Alabama and Tennessee.
Closer to the epicenter, the devastation of the early 1800s was extreme. The ground warped, ejections occurred, fissues opened, landslides occurred and river banks caved. Some of the cracks ripped open fields, but others were up to five miles long. Some people disappeared, apparently swallowed up by the earth. Geysers burst from the earth, spewing sand, water, mud and coal high into the air. The largest sand boil created covers 136 acres and is still visible today. Locals call it “The Beach.” Crewmen of flatboats who survived the disaster related that two temporary waterfalls developed on the Mississippi River. The power of moving water, however, quickly eroded them. Lights flashed from the ground due to quartz crystals being squeezed. Sounds, some of loud explosions and others like distant thunder, accompanied the quakes. Many accounts claim that the Mississippi River ran backward for a time while it filled the newly-created Reelfoot Lake, but those reports appear to be mistaken. Waves moving upstream created the illusion that the river reversed course. Thousands of trees floated on the Mississippi. Wrecked and abandoned boats were everywhere near New Madrid. The steamboat New Orleans, the first on the river and on her maiden voyage, tied up at an island, only to discover the next morning that the island had sunk. UcenterDress plus size wedding wears for maternity brides
These were the strongest earthquakes ever recorded east of the Rocky Mountains, and scientists tell us that it may be only a matter of time before we experience similar quakes. While the states involved were sparsely populated at that time, millions live there today. Instruments were installed in and around the area in 1974 to monitor seismic activity. Since then, more than 4,000 earthquakes have been recorded, most of which were too small to be felt. On average, one earthquake per year is large enough to be felt in the area.
In 2009, a university research team funded by FEMA considered a scenario where all three segments of the New Madrid fault ruptured simultaneously with a total earthquake magnitude of 7.7. The report estimated 86,000 casualties, including 3,500 fatalities; 715,000 damaged buildings; and 7.2 million people displaced, with 2 million of those seeking shelter, primarily due to the lack of utility services. It is troubling to contemplate that there are over a dozen nuclear reactors in the fault zone. Direct economic losses, according to the report, would be at least $300 billion.
“I think most people are aware that earthquakes can occur here, but they just can't remember the last time one shook them,” said Gary Patterson, a geologist with the Center for Earthquake Research and Information in Memphis.
On May 2, 2016 a magnitude 3.5 earthquake at a depth of a bit over eight miles, struck the New Madrid Fault seismic zone near the town of La Center, Kentucky. This led to speculation that it was a “foreshock” for a much bigger quake yet to come. Whether or not this is true, nobody knows. The shaking was felt in parts of other states. Showing the sharp division of opinions, some seismologists have actually described it as an aftershock of the quakes from the 1800s.
How likely is it that a major recurrence will take place? Nobody can say with certainty. The broad consensus is that it is a distinct possibility. The United States Geological Survey estimates a ten percent chance of a quake comparable to thoe of 1811-1812 within the next fifty years. The probability of a 6.0 earthquake during those years is given as 25 to 40 percent.
The likely first point of impact for Alabama would be Lauderdale County, the location of Florence. The county Emergency Management Agency has said that, depending on the strength of the quake, some roads and bridges may collapse. With only three crossings of the Tennessee River, the loss of even one would create major problems. FEMA has projected that more than 900 people in Alabama would be injured in a magnitude 7.7 New Madrid earthquake, along with about 30 killed.
Experts explain that the worst case scenario would be a series of earthquakes, not just one. Damage would be cumulative, especially if they are clustered close as happened in the early 1800s. Even in the absence of physical damage, crucial supply and communication would be paralyzed for days or longer. Accordingly, emergency responders suggest having a basic plan for family members as to where to meet and how to get in touch.
The truth is that the southern states are not prepared to ride out a major incident, either by planning or infrastructure. Its nuclear plants are of similar design to those that experienced meltdowns in Japan’s quake. Buildings, bridges and highways are not built with earthquakes in mind.
Among major cities, Memphis is at particular risk due to its large, older buildings and unreinforced schools and fire stations. Its older highway and railroad bridges that cross the Mississippi River, as well as older overpasses are likely to be damaged or to collapse. On a brighter note, it is highly unlikely that the I-40 bridge would fall from its supports into the river, thanks to a many-million dollar seismic retrofit. Likewise, the Memphis Pyramid was reinforced to the tune of twenty-five million and could be expected to survive. Both AutoZone’s corporate headquarters and the VA Hospital are protected by giant shock absorbers. The city removed the top nine floors of the hospital to reduce the risk of earthquake collapse. Depending on who you ask, these are wise precautions or a foolish waste of hundreds of milllions of taxpayer money on the basis of wildly overhyped fears.
Recognizing that there is a risk of an earthquake is far different from providing advance warning of an impending event. There is simply no reliable way to do this. Iben Browning supplies an example of the hazards of earthquake prediction. The man, educated in meterology rather than seismology, claimed to have predicted the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in California. Based on several factors, he proceeded to predict earthquakes for December 3, 1990 on the New Madrid Fault and other places at the same latitude. His claims generated widespread alarm among some sectors of the public. Some packed away dishes, stored breakable décor and removed pictures from walls. It met with universal derision of seismologists, but news trucks from many places descended on New Madrid, Missouri to cover the phantom disaster. Unless there is some unexpected breakthrough, prophecies of earthquakes on specific dates can safely be ignored.
An interesting place to visit is the New Madrid Historical Museum in the town whose name is given to the fault. Located in an old saloon with a mighty levee rising behind it to protect the town from the Mississippi River, it provides a wealth of factual information on the great quakes of 1811-12, along with gallows-humor tee shirts reading, “Visit New Madrid While It’s Still Here.”
Someday, most likely without any warning, this sleeping menace may awaken to provide a truly devastating earthquake. Thousands of Americans may die, tens of thousands of structures may be destroyed and millions of people may find themselves homeless. But when? Tomorrow? A century from now? Never? Nobody knows.
